
There has been much hoopla regarding Arlen Specter's self-serving jump to the Democratic Party. Once Al Franken is seated, the Dems will have a filibuster-proof sixty seats. Hooray! Soon enough we can look forward to universal health care, green energy sources, federally sanctioned gay marriage, and a renaissance for strong unions. Hell, maybe we can even wrangle free college tuition and legalized marijuana out of this wonderfully unexpected gift. Who could have known that the second coming of Christ would manifest in the form of a Kansas-born, seventy-nine year old Jewish man who talks like Jimmy Stewart on heavy doses of codeine. Glory be!
If only half of the above were true. Specter's opportunist jump only robs progressives of an opportunity to have a real liberal in his seat come 2010. Specter made no secret of the fact that this was done primarily because he was unable to survive a Republican primary fight against a more conservative foe. His ability to win as an independent was also unlikely, but I bet he would have tried had the Dems not been so eager to court him, especially the White House. Let's take a look at the likely scenarios.
Scenario #1: Specter decides to give it a go in a primary fight. He loses to a staunch tea-bag loving conservative who stokes up the base with red meat anti-government rhetoric, criticizing Specter's vote for the Obama stimulus package. In a state that voted for Obama, has lost a ton of manufacturing jobs, and already has one Democratic senator, it is highly unlikely to see a hard-right conservative take the state.
Result: Dems win with "one of their own."
Scenario #2: Specter realizes he can't survive a primary and runs as an independent. Were this to happen, progressives could elect a gay atheist to the Dem ticket and still have a shot because the conservative and right-leaning independents would split leaving a Dem able to win with less than forty percent of the vote. A solidly progressive candidate would be a shoe-in.
Result: Dems win with a bona fide progressive.
Scenario #3: Specter bows out gracefully and lets some new blood take a shot. This would probably result in a moderate Democrat winning the primary (maybe even Chris Matthews - kind of scary, I know; but at least he was a Carter protege). I'll even give the Republicans the benefit of the doubt and say they might be wise enough to elect a moderate in the primary, though moderate conservatives are becoming increasingly rare creatures with each passing day. As stated in the first scenario, in a state that voted for Obama and continues to trend to the left, I have to think...
Result: Dems win with moderate progressive.
Instead, the Democratic Party, with unlimited support from the White House, will throw all of their resources at Specter to ensure his victories in both the primary and general elections. The result is a seat occupied for six more years by a man who vows steadfast adherence to anti-labor positions; supported Bush's authoritarian, anti-choice Supreme Court appointments; supported Bush as much as 76% of the time; and has proven his only loyalty is to his own self preservation (so watch out if the going gets tough for the White House.) Furthermore, Specter dilutes his more progressive counterparts in the Senate because Harry Reid has allowed him to retain his 26 years of seniority, suddenly putting him ahead of many "real" Dems for committee positions and such.
So, this is a terribly short-sighted move for the Democratic party and a net loss for progressives as a whole. Instead of waiting eighteen months for a true Pennsylvania progressive victory in 2010, the Dems prefer to saddle up an octogenarian Republican in a donkey suit. Apparently, the thinking is that because sixty senators have a "D" next to their name, they will all vote in a monolithic block to support what ever the White House or Harry Reid propose. If so, that is profoundly foolish considering the many Blue Dog-type conservative Dems in the Senate who are already poised to heavily water down or even obstruct progressive plans for renewable energy, health care reform, and defense spending to name but a few. This simply reaffirms my fear of Obama's safe, centrist tendencies in a time that demands (and allows) bold, new action. Specter's wrinkled, sagging, zombie eyes are the result of almost three decades as a Washington insider on political autopilot. If this is supposed to be the face of "change," I find that a little hard to believe.
If only half of the above were true. Specter's opportunist jump only robs progressives of an opportunity to have a real liberal in his seat come 2010. Specter made no secret of the fact that this was done primarily because he was unable to survive a Republican primary fight against a more conservative foe. His ability to win as an independent was also unlikely, but I bet he would have tried had the Dems not been so eager to court him, especially the White House. Let's take a look at the likely scenarios.
Scenario #1: Specter decides to give it a go in a primary fight. He loses to a staunch tea-bag loving conservative who stokes up the base with red meat anti-government rhetoric, criticizing Specter's vote for the Obama stimulus package. In a state that voted for Obama, has lost a ton of manufacturing jobs, and already has one Democratic senator, it is highly unlikely to see a hard-right conservative take the state.
Result: Dems win with "one of their own."
Scenario #2: Specter realizes he can't survive a primary and runs as an independent. Were this to happen, progressives could elect a gay atheist to the Dem ticket and still have a shot because the conservative and right-leaning independents would split leaving a Dem able to win with less than forty percent of the vote. A solidly progressive candidate would be a shoe-in.
Result: Dems win with a bona fide progressive.
Scenario #3: Specter bows out gracefully and lets some new blood take a shot. This would probably result in a moderate Democrat winning the primary (maybe even Chris Matthews - kind of scary, I know; but at least he was a Carter protege). I'll even give the Republicans the benefit of the doubt and say they might be wise enough to elect a moderate in the primary, though moderate conservatives are becoming increasingly rare creatures with each passing day. As stated in the first scenario, in a state that voted for Obama and continues to trend to the left, I have to think...
Result: Dems win with moderate progressive.
Instead, the Democratic Party, with unlimited support from the White House, will throw all of their resources at Specter to ensure his victories in both the primary and general elections. The result is a seat occupied for six more years by a man who vows steadfast adherence to anti-labor positions; supported Bush's authoritarian, anti-choice Supreme Court appointments; supported Bush as much as 76% of the time; and has proven his only loyalty is to his own self preservation (so watch out if the going gets tough for the White House.) Furthermore, Specter dilutes his more progressive counterparts in the Senate because Harry Reid has allowed him to retain his 26 years of seniority, suddenly putting him ahead of many "real" Dems for committee positions and such.
"Instead of waiting eighteen months for a true Pennsylvania progressive victory in 2010, the Dems prefer to saddle up an octogenarian Republican in a donkey suit."
So, this is a terribly short-sighted move for the Democratic party and a net loss for progressives as a whole. Instead of waiting eighteen months for a true Pennsylvania progressive victory in 2010, the Dems prefer to saddle up an octogenarian Republican in a donkey suit. Apparently, the thinking is that because sixty senators have a "D" next to their name, they will all vote in a monolithic block to support what ever the White House or Harry Reid propose. If so, that is profoundly foolish considering the many Blue Dog-type conservative Dems in the Senate who are already poised to heavily water down or even obstruct progressive plans for renewable energy, health care reform, and defense spending to name but a few. This simply reaffirms my fear of Obama's safe, centrist tendencies in a time that demands (and allows) bold, new action. Specter's wrinkled, sagging, zombie eyes are the result of almost three decades as a Washington insider on political autopilot. If this is supposed to be the face of "change," I find that a little hard to believe.


